Pakistan Think Tank By ZAID HAMID

Watch Your Back, Mr. Musharraf, The End Game Begins

By ZAID HAMID

The Brasstacks Organization

We have no hesitation in saying that whatever happened since 9th March in Pakistan was an orchestrated game by CIA and its Pakistani assets to ease the entry of Benazir Bhutto and to get rid of a General who had turned too stubborn on issues which are of critical importance for the U.S., like China, Iran, and A.Q. Khan. Musharraf has survived because his opposition is a bunch of comedians and the Pakistan military remains firmly behind him, so far. All sides are fully daggers drawn for the last blood. To survive, Musharraf will have to ditch the Americans before they ditch him.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan—President Musharraf is hanging by a thread and is totally confused about what may happen to him. Incompetence, corruption, betrayals and coercion by allies makes a deadly package for any ruler let alone for a ruler who is struggling for political, moral and religious legitimacy.

Whatever political chaos and confusion in Pakistan these days is partly to do with incompetence and corruption of the incumbent ruling party and Presidential advisors and allies and partly to do with U.S. imposing Benazir Bhutto on the President. This mess is also the result of American pressure on Musharraf to throw caution to the wind when dealing with religious radicals in tribal and Swat regions.

The result is that after eight years in power, President Musharraf is at his weakest today, being taken for a ride by all and sundry, not sure of being in power next week or the week after next and stands most vulnerable and exposed in the cold against very hostile elements from external and internal threat axis.

If he is still around it is because his opposition is a bunch of comedians and the Pakistani armed forces remain firmly behind him, so far. That has more to do with his good luck than his brilliant strategy. But he is indeed pushing himself beyond limits now.

Just read the following paragraph from my report a couple of weeks back:

“Early this year, the U.S. had realized that President Musharraf is not going to budge on many strategic issues that are critical to the American game plan in the region, like the question of Dr. A.Q. Khan, the war within the tribal areas, and the Pakistani cooperation against Iran.

“A regime change was planned in Islamabad but through internal means. The next best candidate to replace the General was Benazir Bhutto due to her secular, liberal agenda and her desperation to seek U.S. help to come back to Pakistan. She had to be the ideal candidate for Washington under the circumstances. Once the Americans picked their new horse, they had to find a way to bring her in.

“For this, major internal and political turmoil had to be created so that the way for PPP, the party Benazir heads for life, could be cleared and President Musharraf forced to make concessions and even relinquish power.

“We have no hesitation in saying that whatever happened since 9th March in the country was an orchestrated game by CIA and their assets within the country to seek a total and complete deal for Benazir Bhutto and to get rid of a General who had turned too stubborn on issues which are of critical importance for the U.S.

“It was a regime change design which did not work as planned for Mrs. Bhutto and the U.S. The game is not over yet and all sides are fully daggers drawn for the last blood. The cost paid by Pakistan in the process is indeed severe and harsh.

“In the coming days, President Musharraf will have to watch his back even more closely than before. He has bitten many and made many more enemies in the last few months. He will have to do much better to survive both politically and physically in the near future.

“The crisis which has rocked the country after 9th March is still reverberating in tribal areas and now even in settled areas of Swat where foreign secret services and vested interests have pounced upon the opportunity to wage a massive low intensity war against Pakistan.”

It is also a fact that Bush administration initially wanted to broker a dubious deal between Musharraf and Bhutto just to allow her to get a foothold in the country and then later on she could be maneuvered into total power as U.S. did in 1989.

The environment today in Pakistan is nearly the same as it was in 1988 when General Zia was in power and the U.S. had done with him and wanted to bring in Mrs. Bhutto in his place.

While General Zia was in power, Bhutto came back into the country and then suddenly the Presidential plane crashed. The U.S. has always blocked all attempts to probe that crash despite the fact that two of their best died in that crash as well. There is no inquiry to this date. The death of the General back then allowed Bhutto to win a huge victory in the elections.

The only two critical differences this time is that religious militants are waging a war against pro-U.S. leaders rather than along with them as they did in Afghan war of the 1980s. It was not discrediting for Bhutto to be known as pro-U.S. back then as Afghan Mujahideen were also comfortable with the Americans. Also, MQM was not that powerful back then to block the path of Bhutto. Both these factors have changed now and both religious radicals and MQM have reasons to eliminate Bhutto if they have to survive.

This time it is suicidal for Benazir to be known as pro-U.S. and pro-West. If the U.S. plan was to get rid of General Musharraf once Bhutto seizes power, then perhaps they have miscalculated. Instead of getting rid of General Musharraf, they just might end up getting Bhutto killed at the hands of religious radicals or her political enemies.

President Musharraf on the other hand is simple and naïve not to see through the game and feel that he can work with Bhutto to fight various forms of terrorism being faced by the country today. This is an impossibility. Even if both of them survive assassination attempts, they still cannot work together.

The way the U.S. is doing Bhutto’s bidding is amazing indeed for most Pakistanis. And the way she is being projected so strongly as the next prime minister has shaken the confidence of President Musharraf as well.

If he wants to work with Bhutto, he will have to get rid of his present allies – PML (Q) and perhaps MQM also. What is happening now is that PML (Q) is totally rattled by these latest developments and they have sent a message to the General that he cannot ride two boats and will have to choose between the present allies or Mrs. Bhutto. This has created a major crisis for the General. The PML is now on a fast-track collision course with Bhutto and there is no way President Musharraf can bring the ruling party aboard the U.S. game plan.

The result has been that PML (Q) is now working on its own plan to unite all its factions including the Nawaz Sharif group as well to create a larger front against PPP which is now being seen as a potent threat due to U.S. patronage and Presidential leanings towards it.

The game is not over yet. The strong PML camp is trying to convince the President that he does not need Bhutto now and can win the next elections with their help just as they have secured his re-election from these same assemblies without PPP’s support.

The fact remains that if it was not for the U.S. pressure on the General, he would not even have looked at the Bhutto for any political deal.

The U.S. is watching these developments with concern. Nothing is decided in the Pakistani politics as yet. The tide can turn in anybody’s favor anytime. The existing ruling party and the government is not comfortable with the U.S. plan for the country and there are fears in Washington that the government would use various pretexts to delay the polls or to use the intelligence setup to create a favorable parliament in the next elections.

Government allies are already threatening in subtle tone and words the possibility of martial law if the judiciary ‘destabilize’ the present order. The government wants elections in time indeed but only if President Musharraf is elected as President and Judiciary does not shoot down his plan for another term. The U.S. is not so sure about these veiled threats and, in fact, may well want the Supreme Court to shoot down the Presidential wish for a re-election.

This is why the following warning from the U.S. was understandable.


Pakistan Think Tank